Set up defences! Withdraw and stand on the defensive. Set up defences again! Withdraw and stand on the defensive again.
The past 30 years, playing chess between outside floating population and urban administrator of Beijing of emergence, there is tendency of growing in intensity. However, in this urban defended war, the latter " retreats in defeat successively" .
Recently, State Statistics Bureau announced the relevant data of the sixth census, the permanent resident population in Beijing is up to 19,610,000, means the total people's controlling of scale of 2020 years of Beijing is in " 18 million " Red line ahead of time break through. The increasingly enormous anxious sense shrouds this city. On the basis of urban the intersection of lifeline and in an emergency logic foundation, people adjustment has drawn swords and gone out of the sheath.
Beijing, does this population adjust and control on earth? How to adjust and control? Who does it adjust and control, and who has stayed here again? From today, this newspaper introduces" the population of Beijing of inquiries test adjusts and controls " Special report. Introduce one of the series of reports today - -People bear the weight of strength to investigate.
10 million, 12,500,000, get 18 million more - -In the past 30 years, all of us think each time, have already touched the limit that the city has born the weight of strength. Having spent 18 million o'clock, people suddenly found, this may not be still limit of this city.
Where does the city bear the weight of strength limit? Where on earth does the red line of population of 18 million come from? How many people can Beijing born the weight of on earth? How should the general planning continue setting up defences to population in the city that would modify in 2013 soon?
Where to bear the weight of strength limit
"Camp step by step, retreat in defeat successively. " ChengRong Duan, Professor of department, population of the People's University of China, claim eight word these summarize the intersection of capital and current situation that population set up defences " can't be more precise " since the fifties .
"Beijing, as one the intersection of resource and getting rare city, present population close to of different resource to bear the weight of limit already. " After this is announced by the sixth people census data, many medias bear the weight of unanimous judgement that strength is made to the population in Beijing while reporting.
Just, such heavy judgement word appeared in the media in 2005 reports badly only.
At the beginning of of that year, through what the State Council gave a written reply to <
The permanent resident population in Beijing has been already up to 19,610,000, has already broken this red line mercilessly at the speed 10 years ahead of time. The broken with it ones include the above-mentioned judgement.
What does population in Beijing bear the weight of strength limit? In fact, in the urban planning since the eighties of last century, the answer to this question has been revised.
In 1983, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the State Council pointed out " the reply to overall programme> ", " firm pairs of controlling of scale of people by 2000 in Beijing are about 10 million people that want. " Though the Communist Party of China Secretariat of the Central Committee requires " The population in Beijing don't exceed 10 million at any time in the future " ,Fail to catch hold of paces that population gathers after all. Only 3 years later, the total population in Beijing has already been up to 10 million in 1986.
Gave a written reply and passed in 1993 <
History is duplicating oneself. In subsequent 5 years after the total rule was made in 2005, about 600,000 people go straight towards the tide of moving and come here every year, permanent resident population's scale is up to 19,610,000 until 2010.
Population expansion swells again, urban population bears the weight of limit to seem to be just before eyes, but red line was altered repeatedly, has spent 18 million o'clock, people suddenly found, this was not still limit of this city.
In 2004, Duan ChengRong participated in the government to put forward the objection on Zeng at the time of the discussion: "Maybe has already broken through this number when we made 18 million, why do you want it firmly? "
Where does 18 million come from
Beijing Municipal Planning Committee claims in handling the reply of the situation to the motion of member of the municipal CPPCC, 18 million is the scale of suitable population of Beijing, prove and definite from seven respects of coordinated development of economics and society such as the bearing capacity of the ecological environment, resource condition, employment.
In fact, not only ChengRong Duan, 18 million red line participate in person who make one of the intersection of Beijing and the intersection of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and economy but also Deputy Director Liang HaoGuang says frankly, at the beginning of making on " Feel that may be not enough " .
Liang Hao only remembers and claims, in 2004, Beijing Municipal Planning Committee trusted city Chinese Academy of Social Sciences to do the subjects of population and employment. Mainly responsible for the duty of space planning on the basis of Municipal Planning Committee, seminar that HaoGuang Liang belong to push away size of population that Beijing can hold instead from construction land, the intersection of person who obtain employment and economic the intersection of strength and index.
Among them, from employment, according to speed of economic development at that time, divide industry, branch trade into, divide area into, it is thinning in the form of grid to get to the street, adopt the mathematical model prediction method at the same time, have made comparatively detailed specialized research report. The report is expected, the demand of Beijing opening is about 8,100,000 in 2020, the annual permanent resident population's scale should be in 17,470,000- 1857 between Wan.
"Rule committee think the feasible method, continue, trust, be population and subject of construction land again. " Liang Hao only claims, the current the United Nations human settlements index (including water, air, land, green land etc.) in the world Come to look, the water resource in Beijing is a short board. It is 5,420 million cubic meters that the seminar predicts 2020 and is support water resource quantity in Beijing. According to the standards of 300 cubic meters / person every year of water resource amount of well-off society of the United Nations, the population that the water resource in Beijing can bear the weight of is about 18 million people.
Finally, the seminar has done the budget of the population scale according to three sets of basic, normal, high indexes, should be between 17 million - 19 million. Finally, are worth 18 million and fix red line for 2020 population while fetching.
Beijing Municipal Planning Committee claims in handling the reply of the situation to the motion of member of the municipal CPPCC, the proposition of this goal, not with the purpose of making a rigid control index, relevant indexes such as the infrastructure in the total rule,etc. are reserved according to 20 million people.
However, among a few years, not only 18 million red lines are broken through ahead of time, the space of 2 million which seminar and planning department reserve also seems to be twinkling of an eye is fill-uped. Multiple planning such as the land, space, infrastructure taking people's scale as main reference system can't bear the heavy load too.
Nowadays, look again later, Liang Hao only claims, this was a rational figure at that time, the index of human settlements of the United Nations of the basis is a set of generally acknowledged index systems in the world too, it is the seminar that measures the index system once according to the real data of Beijing the conclusion drawn. "However, look till now, this kind of detection can not catch the change that population gathers. "
In front of reality, the urban administrator withdraws and stands on the defensive again. Municipal Planning Committee says recently, the total rule taking adjusting population in the red line as important content is modified and started again in 2013.
How many people Beijing can hold
The expert predicts boldly, the scale of permanent resident population of Beijing will be up to 26 million, but may top 30 million by 2030 in 2020.
"Where will the next pass? " Since Municipal Planning Committee shows that rebuilds the total rule, this problem is clicked as focus of the various circles of society.
"One bears the weight of problem with terminal force in the city. " Chief's white will just thought, the bearing the weight of strength of the city would have the restrictions of some resources definitely in Beijing Chinese Academy of Social Sciences foreign country, and water resources and land resources in Beijing are all limited at present.
Duan ChengRong shows, the capacity of population of the city may have a limit, but not absolute. He thinks, urban itself is a open system, carry on the exchange of personnel, material with the outside. Say how many people which city can hold it is not absolute, but there is a relatively rational quantity only, and this quantity is changing constantly, depend on basic condition, level for producing development of strength.
To this view, the national city of development and reform committee and researcher of small town research and development centre Yuan ChongFa think, it is not the urban one's own natural resources natural endowment that it is determined that the city bore the weight of strength, but the comprehensive productivity level in the city.
Meanwhile, he thinks he should clarify that bear the weight of the region range of strength first, as to Beijing, really the problem of the over-congested population exists in the urban area, but there is development space greatly in the outer suburbs, still hope to introduce population. "Can say so, do not bear the weight of the problem with terminal strength in Beijing administrative division, whom Beijing have greatly bear the weight of space is to 20 million get to hair. "
Liang Hao only thinks, the critical value that the city bears the weight of strength and exists, but from international comparative analysis at present, according to indexes such as the laws of development trend and city's development of Beijing,etc., have very much loud distances from these critical value. He explains, there is an index in the living environment of the United Nations - -Very suitable for, naturally suitable. According to this index, 80% of the areas and living environments are in the suitable district naturally now in Beijing.
"However, we have to admit, the city that we inhabit is reducing. " Liang HaoGuang still worries, the restricted factor of resource exposed day by day in Beijing is being strengthened, even if the hydroenergy of South-North Water Diversion comes over, Beijing is a tight equilibrium state. Fortunately, after the heavy industry turns to the industry mode of the productive service industry, can use water way to adjust to some extent, bear the weight of strength and strengthen to some extent too. "This is too why there are many Beijingers, have not also reached a reason of limit. "
Because of the above-mentioned analysis, when the total rule is assessed in middle period, Liang HaoGuang predicts boldly, the scale of permanent resident population of Beijing will be up to 26 million in 2020.
Where does the anxious sense come from
The population pressure exists objectively, but even so, population will come, or more persons will come, this is any city while considering next planning, no matter the problem of how to avoid either.
Even under bearing the weight of the realistic evidence that strength is rising constantly and predicting in the city, still there are enormous anxious senses in Beijing.
Since last July, a research report of Municipal CPPCC was announced " to this city the permanent resident population has been already up to 19,720,000 up to the end of 2009 " Data since,"population adjust and control " Have already become the key tasks of institutions at all levels of this city.
The ones that use every administration means to control floating population strictly " The mode of Shunyi " ,Popularized in the dispute extensively at first. Then, the ones that are queried go in for " seal the village " a big way Management mode gather at floating population the outer suburbs come duplication. During two Conferences, many counties in this city have announced the clear goal of population control this year, subsequently, clear up the underground space, close down the small shops, contract to go to the capital to adjust and control the means to issue intensively in a series of population such as the index closely. " population adjusts and controls " Have become the sensitive vocabulary gradually.
"The administrator hopes these measures can be effective in short term, this has reflected the anxiety of heart exactly too. " Yuan ChongFa appraises so.
Then, where does the administrator's anxiety come from?
The public security of China Peoples Public Security University is that an associate professor thanks Henan Province of Sichuan to point out, the increasingly huge people's scale makes the urban administrator negligent of social management for many years and save the social concern under and break out in a short time. And is perplexing traffic, public security, fire control, hygiene, education of the person who survives of this city,etc. a series of question, it is the important index of the ability of administration of the person who tests authorities.
Duan ChengRong has analyzed such anxious reason too, he does not think the public basic facilities in the city have reserved enough spaces of dilatation. The ability of the public service, can not catch the change that population gathers, much infrastructure such as train platform etc. is unable to expand holding, and unable to solve these contradictions in short term.
"Look on the surface, this is a question of urban planning, however, in fact not realize the urbanized objective law. " Duan ChengRong claims, population red line repeatly has the repeatly broken origin and lies in this too, " we do not want to let so many people come, it plans to be according to settlement like that that us hope, can question lie in here right away, this is independent of will. "
Duan ChengRong claims, the objective fact is, under the great urbanized background of the whole country, the urban system including main cities such as Beijing,etc., must be ready, meet more population and come. "This is that any city, while considering next planning, no matter the problem of how to avoid either. "
Many experts who Duan ChengRong and reporter interviewed are comparatively identical on this view. To the new round of demonstration of the new red line of population who will begin soon, the expert thinks, will talk about planning and managing again because of such reality and law, if this thinking is not carried out in the planning in 2013, unavoidable red line more broken awkwardness.
"And only stare at the eyes on floating population and think of going out to go out a little more in one point them, can't do at all. " Duan ChengRong says.
It is broken through that all previous
Planned in 1983
Control the population by 2000 in Beijing about 10 million people. Only 3 years later, total population has already been up to 10 million in 1986.
Planned in 1993
Should control the permanent resident population in Beijing in 2010 about 12,500,000, the fact is, in 2000, the permanent resident population in Beijing has already been up to 13,820,000 people.
Planned in 2005
Fix 18 million for 2020 population in the red line, but the census data of the population that announces recently reveals, the permanent resident population in Beijing has been already up to 19,610,000.
This edition interviews and writes staff reporter Sun Qian
The population in Beijing bears the weight of the terminal investigation
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